Who Killed Hariri?

from - 20.02.2005 07:19

Syria is being blamed for the assassinaton of Rafiq Hariri. If true, this would be a real suicide operation. The assassination was more likely planned by those whose interests it serves, and who wish to set Syria up for an attack.

Who killed Hariri?

The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri has put into question the economic and political future of Lebanon. Will there be a financial collapse? Will the Shia resistance in the south be disarmed before the Shabaa farms are liberated from Israeli occupation? Will Western forces be stationed in the country, ostensibly to keep the peace? All of this is uncertain. If one thing does seem clear, however, it is that Syrian dominance of its troubled neighbour is about to end.

Even before the smoke from the enormous seafront explosion had dispersed, blame was being directed at the Syrian regime and its loyalists in the Lebanese government. Hariri’s family, the opposition, France and the United States all held Damascus responsible, directly or indirectly, for the murder.

There are reasons why Syria might have wanted rid of Hariri. Hitherto a dependable partner, he was moving into quiet opposition to the Syrian presence. It was even rumoured that he supported the American and French-backed UN resolution 1559 which calls on Syria to withdraw its 14, 000 remaining troops from the country, and for Hizbullah to be disarmed. Crucially, Hizbullah’s proven fighting abilities constitute Syria’s only card with which to pressure for an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Syrian Golan. Hariri was likely to win the May elections and put even more pressure on Syria to leave. And the Syrians are capable of savage attacks on their opponents. They have done such things before.

There are also very good reasons why Syria could not possibly have been behind the assassination. Just last week Syria was warned by the UN’s Terje Roed-Larsen that attacks on Lebanese politicians, specifically Hariri and MP Walid Jumblatt, would result in a "total, final and irrevocable divorce with the international community."

Syrian policy has always been to be as diplomatic as possible with the big powers, and not to impetuously court disaster. At this time, when Syria was already being lined up as a target for the ‘war on terror,’ willingly giving ammunition to its enemies would have been more than just stupid, it would have been suicidal.

It was obvious that an assassination of this magnitude would have terrible consequences, vastly increasing the pressure on Syria to leave Lebanon (something it was already considering) but in such a way that it won't be able to do the necessary deals to ensure Hizbullah's freedom of movement. Neither will it be allowed to link a final settlement in Lebanon with a settlement of the Palestinian refugee problem. Because of Lebanon’s delicate sectarian balance the 400, 000 Palestinians residing there live in wretched conditions, deprived of work and travel opportunities and any hope of integrating into society beyond the camps.

Syria has clearly outstayed its welcome among many Lebanese, who are as fed up as the Syrian people of the Syrian mukhabarat, or secret police. The Syrians blundered badly last September by engineering the extension of loyalist President Emile Lahoud’s term of office. It was this intervention which triggered Hariri’s resignation from the government and deepened anti-Syrian emotions among Lebanese. These feelings have been catalysed by Hariri’s assassination. Until then a significant number of Lebanese had come to believe it was time for Syria to go. Now it must be a large majority.

At very least, it looks today as if Lebanon under Syrian control is unstable. And the original reason for Syria being there was to stop such instability.

None of this is in Syria’s interest. Not only does the assassination serve key Israeli/ American demands that Syria withdraw and Hizbullah be neutralised, but it also provides an excellent pretext for an attack on Syria itself. And it fits with the probable upcoming (American or Israeli) strike on Iranian military sites: one of the places that Iran will want to retaliate is via Hizbullah against Israel. Good idea to get Hizbullah out of the way before this.

It goes without saying that America, which claims to be concerned with Lebanon’s sovereignty, was never bothered by the savage Israeli invasion and occupation of the country. It has nothing to say about the almost daily incursions of Israeli fighters into Lebanese airspace or the continuing occupation of the Shabaa farms. American interest does not arise from altruism.

Nobody knows who killed Hariri except the killers. An inquiry may or may not unearth the truth. In the meantime it would appear logical to take accusations against Syria with a large grain of salt, and to suspect that this murder was an operation planned by those whose agenda it serves most. They have done such things before, too.

Robin Yassin-Kassab

Telefon: 00 968 99411394